About optionshotline

Now in my 18th year as Options Hotline editor.

November Returns

november

by Steven Sarnoff

We welcome the onset of a new month with stocks seeking to extend their record run. Analysts often look to past returns for an idea of what to expect going forward. But the well-known disclaimer, “Past results are not indicative of future returns,” is always applicable. One of my favorite market adages is that, “It’s the little exceptions that get you.” So one is well-served to view historical returns with eyes open to alternative outcomes.

The following chart arrived in my Inbox, depicting monthly trends for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 20, 50, and 100 years.

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What’s Going On (In The Market Now)?

whatsgoingon

by Steven Sarnoff

The extended record-setting move up in the venerable S&P 500 is making any self-respecting seller “wanna holler and throw up both my hands,” and many of the weaker shorts are capitulating.  This has my contrarian senses tingling.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on in three important markets, stocks, interest rates, and the US dollar.

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Options Help You Profit From Up and Down Moves

upndown

by Steven Sarnoff

It’s been said that trading is like flying an airplane, “Hours of boredom with moments of terror.” Market action may sometimes feel frenetic, but Options Hotline subscribers use a strategic game plan for each trade to smooth turbulence and steadily stay a step ahead of the crowd.

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Have Your $CAKE

chcake

by Steven Sarnoff

Though you won’t find your favorite vegan technical analyst partaking of Cheesecake Factory ($CAKE) fare, the shares are moving sweetly for our Options Hotline subscribers.

In mid-September I noticed the unhealthy eatery’s shares were not as sickly as they appeared. The signs of a potentially vigorous and natural rebound were flashing and, from the menu of available options, I recommended a January $40-strike call for our readers.

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I $SPY Key Resistance, FYI:

ispy

by Steven Sarnoff

Corporate earnings beats, particularly in the Dow industrials, are propelling panic buying. Central bank monetary largesse and money moving out of bonds (pushing 10-year yields up), along with investor hopes for tax cut legislation is also juicing the market.

I try to tune out the noise and focus on what the character of the behavior of market price movement is saying. Note, in my daily candlestick chart below, the appearance of a “hanging man” followed by a strong negative black candle just as the venerable index is nearing the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern. This is telling us that buyers are approaching exhaustion and sellers are poised to strike back.

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Is TRIP Headed South?

tripadvislogo

by Steven Sarnoff

Markets don’t move down a one-way street. The news of record-setting stock prices Mr. Trump is so fond of touting hasn’t been booked by this Internet darling. As you can see by my daily candlestick chart of TripAdvisor shares, the online travel brand company settled today’s session pointing south.

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Value, What A Concept!

value

by Steven Sarnoff

Just a week after running over Ford, Tesla today overtook General Motors for the number one spot among US automakers for market value based on stock market capitalization.  Tesla’s drive higher has sparked renewed debate about the concept of value.

Differing opinions make markets. The financial media features many Wall Street analysts flouting Tesla’s share price rise, calling the stock clearly overvalued. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, couldn’t resist schadenfreude by trolling and throwing shade at short sellers with his, “Stormy weather in Shortville…” tweet.

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